Capacidad del biomarcador suPAR para estratificar el pronóstico en pacientes atendidos en servicios de urgencias hospitalarios / Value of the soluble urokinase-type plasminogen activator receptor as a predictor of prognosis in patients attended in hospital emergency departments

Objetivos. Determinar la capacidad del receptor soluble del activador del plasminógeno tipo uroquinasa (suPAR) para la estratificación pronóstica en pacientes atendidos en servicios de urgencias hospitalarios (SUH). Los objetivos secundarios son: 1)medir la capacidad de los puntos de decisión habituales, 2)identificar una población de bajo riesgo de mortalidad que puede darse de alta de forma segura desde el SUH, y 3)medir la correlación entre suPAR y otros biomarcadores. Métodos. Estudio observacional de cohortes prospectivo de pacientes atendidos en SUH. Se registraron variables sociodemográficas, de comorbilidad, datos del episodio agudo, biomarcadores de uso común en urgencias y suPAR. Las variables de resultado fueron la necesidad de ingreso en el episodio índice, reconsulta al SUH y mortalidad a los 90 días. Resultados. Se incluyeron 990 pacientes, la edad fue de 68 (53-81) años, 50,8% eran hombres, la mediana de suPAR fue de 3,8 (2,8-6,0) ng/ml, 112 pacientes (11,31%) requirieron ingreso. En el seguimiento a 90 días hubo 276 reconsultas (27,9%) y 47 pacientes (4,74%) fallecieron. Los pacientes con suPAR<4 ng/ml (52,5%) tenían menor mortalidad (1%), menor reconsulta (24,4%) y menor necesidad de ingreso hospitalario (20,6%), que pacientes con suPAR>6 ng/ml (mortalidad 13,5%, reconsulta 39,6% e ingreso 56,3%). Un suPAR>6 ng/ml mostró una hazard ratio (IC 95%) ajustada de 4,61 (1,68-12,67) para predecir mortalidad a 90 días y de 1,59 (1,13-2,10) para la reconsulta, y una odds ratio de 1,62 (0,99-2,62) para la necesidad de ingreso hospitalario. Conclusiones. Un valor de suPAR < 4 ng/ml identifica pacientes con riesgo bajo de mortalidad a 90 días, de reconsulta y de necesidad de ingreso, mientras que los pacientes con suPAR>6 ng/ml tienen mayor mortalidad, reconsulta y necesidad de ingreso. (AU)

Objectives. To determine the value of the soluble urokinase-type plasminogen activator receptor (suPAR) for predicting outcomes in emergency department (ED) patients. Secondary objectives were 1)to measure the predictive value of the usual decision points, 2)to identify patients at low risk for mortality who could be safely discharged from the ED, and 3)to measure the correlation between suPAR and other biomarkers. Methods. Prospective observational cohort study of patients attended in the EDs of participating hospitals. We recorded sociodemographic variables, comorbidity, variables related to the acute episode, prognostic markers commonly used in EDs, and suPAR concentration. Outcome variables were the need for hospital admission during the index episode, ED revisits within 90 days, and 90-day mortality. Results. A total of 990 patients with a median (interquartile range) age of 68 (53-81 years) were studied; 50.8% were men. The median suPAR concentration was 3.8 (2.8-6.0) ng/mL, and 112 patients (11.31%) required admission. At 90 days there were 276 revisits (27.9% of the cohort), and 47 patients (4.74%) had died. Mortality was lower (1%) in patients with suPAR concentrations less than 4 ng/mL (52.5%), and fewer of these patients revisited (24.4%) or required hospitalization (20.6%) than patients with suPAR concentrations higher than 6 ng/mL (mortality, 13.5%; revisits, 39.6%; admissions, 56.3%). A suPAR concentration over 6 ng/mL was associated with 90-day mortality and revisits (adjusted hazard ratios and 95% CIs of 4.61 [1.68-12.67] and 1.59 [1.13-2.10]), respectively. The high suPAR concentration was also associated with hospital admission (odds ratio, 1.62 [0.99-2.62]). Conclusions. A suPAR concentration of less than 4 ng/mL identifies patients at low risk of 90-day mortality and revisits or need for hospitalization, whereas a suPAR concentration higher than 6 ng/mL is associated with higher risk for these outcomes. (AU)

Value of the soluble urokinase-type plasminogen activator receptor as a predictor of prognosis in patients attended in hospital emergency departments. / Capacidad del biomarcador suPAR para estratificar el pronóstico en pacientes atendidos en servicios de urgencias hospitalarios.

OBJECTIVES: To determine the value of the soluble urokinase-type plasminogen activator receptor (suPAR) for predicting outcomes in emergency department (ED) patients. Secondary objectives were 1) to measure the predictive value of the usual decision points, 2) to identify patients at low risk for mortality who could be safely discharged from the ED, and 3) to measure the correlation between suPAR and other biomarkers. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Prospective observational cohort study of patients attended in the EDs of participating hospitals. We recorded sociodemographic variables, comorbidity, variables related to the acute episode, prognostic markers commonly used in EDs, and suPAR concentration. Outcome variables were the need for hospital admission during the index episode, ED revisits within 90 days, and 90-day mortality. RESULTS: A total of 990 patients with a median (interquartile range) age of 68 (53-81 years) were studied; 50.8% were men. The median suPAR concentration was 3.8 (2.8-6.0) ng/mL, and 112 patients (11.31%) required admission. At 90 days there were 276 revisits (27.9% of the cohort), and 47 patients (4.74%) had died. Mortality was lower (1%) in patients with suPAR concentrations less than 4 ng/mL (52.5%), and fewer of these patients revisited (24.4%) or required hospitalization (20.6%) than patients with suPAR concentrations higher than 6 ng/mL (mortality, 13.5%; revisits, 39.6%; admissions, 56.3%). A suPAR concentration over 6 ng/mL was associated with 90-day mortality and revisits (adjusted hazard ratios and 95% CIs of 4.61 [1.68-12.67] and 1.59 [1.13-2.10]), respectively. The high suPAR concentration was also associated with hospital admission (odds ratio, 1.62 [0.99-2.62]). CONCLUSION: A suPAR concentration of less than 4 ng/mL identifies patients at low risk of 90-day mortality and revisits or need for hospitalization, whereas a suPAR concentration higher than 6 ng/mL is associated with higher risk for these outcomes.

OBJETIVO: Determinar la capacidad del receptor soluble del activador del plasminógeno tipo uroquinasa (suPAR) para la estratificación pronóstica en pacientes atendidos en servicios de urgencias hospitalarios (SUH). Los objetivos secundarios son: 1) medir la capacidad de los `puntos de decisión habituales, 2) identificar una población de bajo riesgo de mortalidad que puede darse de alta de forma segura desde el SUH, y 3) medir la correlación entre suPAR y otros biomarcadores. METODO: Estudio observacional de cohortes prospectivo de pacientes atendidos en SUH. Se registraron variables sociodemográficas, de comorbilidad, datos del episodio agudo, biomarcadores de uso común en urgencias y suPAR. Las variables de resultado fueron la necesidad de ingreso en el episodio índice, reconsulta al SUH y mortalidad a los 90 días. RESULTADOS: Se incluyeron 990 pacientes, la edad fue de 68 (53-81) años, 50,8% eran hombres, la mediana de suPAR fue de 3,8 (2,8-6,0) ng/ml, 112 pacientes (11,31%) requirieron ingreso. En el seguimiento a 90 días hubo 276 reconsultas (27,9%) y 47 pacientes (4,74%) fallecieron. Los pacientes con suPAR 4 ng/ml (52,5%) tenían menor mortalidad (1%), menor reconsulta (24,4%) y menor necesidad de ingreso hospitalario (20,6%), que pacientes con suPAR 6 ng/ml (mortalidad 13,5%, reconsulta 39,6% e ingreso 56,3%). Un suPAR 6 ng/ml mostró una hazard ratio (IC 95%) ajustada de 4,61 (1,68-12,67) para predecir mortalidad a 90 días y de 1,59 (1,13-2,10) para la reconsulta, y una odds ratio de 1,62 (0,99-2,62) para la necesidad de ingreso hospitalario. CONCLUSIONES: Un valor de suPAR 4 ng/ml identifica pacientes con riesgo bajo de mortalidad a 90 días, de reconsulta y de necesidad de ingreso, mientras que los pacientes con suPAR 6 ng/ml tienen mayor mortalidad, reconsulta y necesidad de ingreso.

Capacidad del biomarcador suPAR para estratificar el pronóstico en pacientes atendidos en servicios de urgencias hospitalarios / Value of the soluble urokinase-type plasminogen activator receptor as a predictor of prognosis in patients attended in hospital emergency departments

Objetivos. Determinar la capacidad del receptor soluble del activador del plasminógeno tipo uroquinasa (suPAR) para la estratificación pronóstica en pacientes atendidos en servicios de urgencias hospitalarios (SUH). Los objetivos secundarios son: 1)medir la capacidad de los puntos de decisión habituales, 2)identificar una población de bajo riesgo de mortalidad que puede darse de alta de forma segura desde el SUH, y 3)medir la correlación entre suPAR y otros biomarcadores. Métodos. Estudio observacional de cohortes prospectivo de pacientes atendidos en SUH. Se registraron variables sociodemográficas, de comorbilidad, datos del episodio agudo, biomarcadores de uso común en urgencias y suPAR. Las variables de resultado fueron la necesidad de ingreso en el episodio índice, reconsulta al SUH y mortalidad a los 90 días. Resultados. Se incluyeron 990 pacientes, la edad fue de 68 (53-81) años, 50,8% eran hombres, la mediana de suPAR fue de 3,8 (2,8-6,0) ng/ml, 112 pacientes (11,31%) requirieron ingreso. En el seguimiento a 90 días hubo 276 reconsultas (27,9%) y 47 pacientes (4,74%) fallecieron. Los pacientes con suPAR<4 ng/ml (52,5%) tenían menor mortalidad (1%), menor reconsulta (24,4%) y menor necesidad de ingreso hospitalario (20,6%), que pacientes con suPAR>6 ng/ml (mortalidad 13,5%, reconsulta 39,6% e ingreso 56,3%). Un suPAR>6 ng/ml mostró una hazard ratio (IC 95%) ajustada de 4,61 (1,68-12,67) para predecir mortalidad a 90 días y de 1,59 (1,13-2,10) para la reconsulta, y una odds ratio de 1,62 (0,99-2,62) para la necesidad de ingreso hospitalario. Conclusiones. Un valor de suPAR < 4 ng/ml identifica pacientes con riesgo bajo de mortalidad a 90 días, de reconsulta y de necesidad de ingreso, mientras que los pacientes con suPAR>6 ng/ml tienen mayor mortalidad, reconsulta y necesidad de ingreso. (AU)

Objectives. To determine the value of the soluble urokinase-type plasminogen activator receptor (suPAR) for predicting outcomes in emergency department (ED) patients. Secondary objectives were 1)to measure the predictive value of the usual decision points, 2)to identify patients at low risk for mortality who could be safely discharged from the ED, and 3)to measure the correlation between suPAR and other biomarkers. Methods. Prospective observational cohort study of patients attended in the EDs of participating hospitals. We recorded sociodemographic variables, comorbidity, variables related to the acute episode, prognostic markers commonly used in EDs, and suPAR concentration. Outcome variables were the need for hospital admission during the index episode, ED revisits within 90 days, and 90-day mortality. Results. A total of 990 patients with a median (interquartile range) age of 68 (53-81 years) were studied; 50.8% were men. The median suPAR concentration was 3.8 (2.8-6.0) ng/mL, and 112 patients (11.31%) required admission. At 90 days there were 276 revisits (27.9% of the cohort), and 47 patients (4.74%) had died. Mortality was lower (1%) in patients with suPAR concentrations less than 4 ng/mL (52.5%), and fewer of these patients revisited (24.4%) or required hospitalization (20.6%) than patients with suPAR concentrations higher than 6 ng/mL (mortality, 13.5%; revisits, 39.6%; admissions, 56.3%). A suPAR concentration over 6 ng/mL was associated with 90-day mortality and revisits (adjusted hazard ratios and 95% CIs of 4.61 [1.68-12.67] and 1.59 [1.13-2.10]), respectively. The high suPAR concentration was also associated with hospital admission (odds ratio, 1.62 [0.99-2.62]). Conclusions. A suPAR concentration of less than 4 ng/mL identifies patients at low risk of 90-day mortality and revisits or need for hospitalization, whereas a suPAR concentration higher than 6 ng/mL is associated with higher risk for these outcomes. (AU)

Nonadverse COVID-19 evolution predictors: the CoNAE scale. / Predictores de evolución no adversa en pacientes con COVID-19: escala CoNAE (COVID-19 non-adverse evolution).

OBJECTIVES: Tools to identify patients with mild to moderate COVID-19 are as yet unavailable. Our aims were to identify factors associated with nonadverse outcomes and develop a scale to predict nonadverse evolution in patients with COVID-19 (the CoNAE scale) in hospital emergency departments. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Retrospective cohort study of patients who came to one of our area's national health service hospitals for treatment of SARS-CoV-2 infection from July 1, 2020, to July 31, 2021. From case records we collected sociodemographic information, underlying comorbidity and ongoing treatments, other relevant medical history details, and vital constants on arrival for triage. Multilevel multivariable logistic regression models were used to identify predictors. RESULTS: The model showed that patients who had nonadverse outcomes were younger, female, and vaccinated against COVID-19 (2 doses at the time of the study). They arrived with normal vital signs (heart rate, diastolic and systolic pressures, temperature, and oxygen saturation) and had none of the following concomitant diseases or factors: heart failure other heart disease, hypertension, diabetes, liver disease, dementia, history of malignant tumors, and they were not being treated with oral or other systemic corticosteroids or immunosuppressant therapy. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for the model was 0.840 (95% CI, 0.834-0.847). CONCLUSION: We developed the CoNAE scale to predict nonadverse outcomes. This scale may be useful in triage for evaluating patients with COVID-19. It may also help predict safe discharge or plan the level of care that patients require not only in a hospital emergency department but also in urgent primary care settings or out-of-hospital emergency care.

OBJETIVO: Faltan herramientas para identificar a los pacientes con COVID-19 moderado o leve. El objetivo de este estudio fue identificar variables asociadas a la evolución no adversa y diseñar un modelo predictivo de evolución favorable en pacientes atendidos en servicios de urgencias hospitalarios (SUH) por infección por SARS-CoV-2. METODO: Estudio de cohorte retrospectivo de pacientes con infección por SARS-CoV-2 que acudieron a alguno de los SUH de hospitales públicos de una área por una infección por COVID-19 entre el 1 de julio de 2020 y el 31 de julio de 2021. Los datos recogidos para este estudio incluyeron información sociodemográfica, comorbilidades basales y tratamientos, otros datos de antecedentes y registro de los signos vitales a la llegada (triaje) al SUH. Se utilizaron modelos de regresión logística multivariable multinivel para desarrollar los modelos predictivos. RESULTADOS: Las personas que tuvieron resultados no adversos eran más jóvenes, mujeres, habían recibido dos dosis de la vacuna COVID-19 en el momento del estudio, tenían signos vitales (frecuencia cardiaca-presión diastólica/sistólica, temperatura y saturación de oxígeno) dentro de un rango normal al llegar al triaje del SUH, y no tenían ninguna de las siguientes comorbilidades: insuficiencia cardiaca, enfermedad coronaria, hipertensión arterial, diabetes, enfermedad hepática, demencia, antecedentes de tumores malignos o prescripción de corticosteroides orales sistémicos o inmunosupresores como medicación basal. El modelo tenía un área bajo la curva (ABC) de 0,8404 (IC 95%: 0,8342-0,8466). CONCLUSIONES: Se ha desarrollado una escala de predicción de resultados no adversos que pueden ser útil como herramienta de triaje, así como para determinar el alta segura y para adaptar el nivel de atención que el paciente requiere, no sólo en el SUH, sino también a nivel de atención de emergencia primaria o extrahospitalaria.

Predictores de evolución no adversa en pacientes con COVID-19: escala CoNAE (COVID-19 non-adverse evolution) / Nonadverse COVID-19 evolution predictors: the CoNAE scale

Objetivos: Faltan herramientas para identificar a los pacientes con COVID-19 moderado o leve. El objetivo de este estudio fue identificar variables asociadas a la evolución no adversa y diseñar un modelo predictivo de evolución favorable en pacientes atendidos en servicios de urgencias hospitalarios (SUH) por infección por SARS-CoV-2. Métodos: Estudio de cohorte retrospectivo de pacientes con infección por SARS-CoV-2 que acudieron a alguno de los SUH de hospitales públicos de unaa área por una infección por COVID-19 entre el 1 de julio de 2020 y el 31 de julio de 2021. Los datos recogidos para este estudio incluyeron información sociodemográfica, comorbilidades basales y tratamientos, otros datos de antecedentes y registro de los signos vitales a la llegada (triaje) al SUH. Se utilizaron modelos de regresión logística multivariable multinivel para desarrollar los modelos predictivos. Resultados: Las personas que tuvieron resultados no adversos eran más jóvenes, mujeres, habían recibido dos dosis de la vacuna COVID-19 en el momento del estudio, tenían signos vitales (frecuencia cardiaca-presión diastólica/sistólica, temperatura y saturación de oxígeno) dentro de un rango normal al llegar al triaje del SUH, y no tenían ninguna de las siguientes comorbilidades: insuficiencia cardiaca, enfermedad coronaria, hipertensión arterial, diabetes, enfermedad hepática, demencia, antecedentes de tumores malignos o prescripción de corticosteroides orales sistémicos o inmunosupresores como medicación basal. El modelo tenía un área bajo la curva (ABC) de 0,8404 (IC 95%: 0,8342-0,8466). Conclusiones: Se ha desarrollado una escala de predicción de resultados no adversos que pueden ser útil como herramienta de triaje, así como para determinar el alta segura y para adaptar el nivel de atención que el paciente requiere, no sólo en el SUH, sino también a nivel de atención de emergencia primaria o extrahospitalaria. (AU)

Background and objectives: Tools to identify patients with mild to moderate COVID-19 are as yet unavailable. Our aims were to identify factors associated with nonadverse outcomes and develop a scale to predict nonadverse evolution in patients with COVID-19 (the CoNAE scale) in hospital emergency departments. Methods: Retrospective cohort study of patients who came to one of our area’s national health service hospitals for treatment of SARS-CoV-2 infection from July 1, 2020, to July 31, 2021. From case records we collected sociodemographicinformation, underlying comorbidity and ongoing treatments, other relevant medical history details, and vital constants on arrival for triage. Multilevel multivariable logistic regression models were used to identify predictors. Results: The model showed that patients who had nonadverse outcomes were younger, female, and vaccinated against COVID-19 (2 doses at the time of the study). They arrived with normal vital signs (heart rate, diastolic and systolic pressures, temperature, and oxygen saturation) and had none of the following concomitant diseases or factors: heart failure other heart disease, hypertension, diabetes, liver disease, dementia, history of malignant tumors, and they were not being treated with oral or other systemic corticosteroids or immunosuppressant therapy. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for the model was 0.840 (95% CI, 0.834-0.847). Conclusions: We developed the CoNAE scale to predict nonadverse outcomes. This scale may be useful in triage for evaluating patients with COVID-19. It may also help predict safe discharge or plan the level of care that patients require not only in a hospital emergency department but also in urgent primary care settings or out-of-hospital emergency care. (AU)

Utilidad del modelo 5MPB-Toledo para predecir bacteriemia en el paciente anciano / Usefulness of the 5MPB-Toledo model to predict bacteremia in the elderly patient

Resumen Objetivo: Analizar la utilidad del modelo predictivo de bacteriemia (5MPB-Toledo) en los mayores de 65 años atendidos por infección en el servicio de urgencias (SU). Material y Método: Estudio observacional prospectivo y multicéntrico de los hemocultivos (HC) obtenidos en pacientes mayores de 65 años atendidos por infección en 66 SU españoles desde el 1 de diciembre de 2019 hasta el 30 de abril de 2020. Se analizó la capacidad predictiva del modelo con el área bajo la curva (ABC) de la característica operativa del receptor (COR) y se calculó el rendimiento diagnóstico de los puntos de corte (PC) del modelo elegido con los cálculos de la sensibilidad, la especificidad, el valor predictivo positivo y el valor predictivo negativo. Resultados: Se incluyeron 2.401 episodios de HC extraídos. De ellos, se consideró como bacteriemia verdadera a 579 (24,11%) y como HC negativo a 1.822 (75,89%). Entre los negativos, 138 (5,74%) se consideraron contaminados. Se categorizó a los pacientes en bajo (0-2 puntos), moderado (3-5 puntos) y alto (6-8 puntos) riesgo, con una probabilidad de bacteriemia de 1,2%, 18,1% y 80,7%, respectivamente. El ABC-COR del modelo tras remuestreo fue de 0,908 (IC 95%: 0,897-0,924). El rendimiento diagnóstico del modelo, considerando un PC ≥ 5 puntos, obtiene una sensibilidad de 94% (IC 95%:92-96), especificidad de 77% (IC 95%:76-79) y un valor predictivo negativo de 97% (IC 95%:96-98). Conclusión: El modelo 5MPB-Toledo es de utilidad para predecir bacteriemia en los mayores de 65 años atendidos en el SU por un episodio de infección.

Abstract Objective: To analyse a risk score to predict bacteremia (MPB5-Toledo) in the patients aged older 65 years seen in the emergency departments (ED) due to infections. Patients and Methods: Prospective and multicenter observational cohort study of the blood cultures (BC) ordered in 66 Spanish ED for patients aged older 65 years seen from December 1, 2019, to April 30, 2020. The predictive ability of the model was analyzed with the area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve (AUC-ROC). The prognostic performance for true bacteremia was calculated with the cut-off values chosen for getting the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value. Results: A total of 2.401 blood samples wered cultured. True cases of bacteremia were confirmed in 579 (24.11%). The remaining 1.822 cultures (75.89%) wered negative. And, 138 (5.74%) were judged to be contaminated. Low risk for bacteremia was indicated by a score of 0 to 2 points, intermediate risk by 3 to 5 points, and high risk by 6 to 8 points. Bacteremia in these 3 risk groups was predicted for 1.2%, 18.1%, and 80.7%, respectively. The model´s area under the receiver ope rating characteristic curve was 0.908 (95% CI, 0.897-0.924). The prognostic performance with a model´s cut-off value of ≥ 5 points achieved 94% (95% CI: 92-96) sensitivity, 77% (95% CI: 76-79) specificity, and negative predictive value of 97% (95% CI: 96-98). Conclusion: The 5MPB-Toledo score is useful for predicting bacteremia in the patients aged older 65 years seen in the emergency departments due to infections.

A bacteraemia risk prediction model: development and validation in an emergency medicine population.

OBJECTIVE: Design a risk model to predict bacteraemia in patients attended in emergency departments (ED) for an episode of infection. METHODS: This was a national, prospective, multicentre, observational cohort study of blood cultures (BC) collected from adult patients (≥ 18 years) attended in 71 Spanish EDs from October 1 2019 to March 31, 2020. Variables with a p value < 0.05 were introduced in the univariate analysis together with those of clinical significance. The final selection of variables for the scoring scale was made by logistic regression with selection by introduction. The results obtained were internally validated by dividing the sample in a derivation and a validation cohort. RESULTS: A total of 4,439 infectious episodes were included. Of these, 899 (20.25%) were considered as true bacteraemia. A predictive model for bacteraemia was defined with seven variables according to the Bacteraemia Prediction Model of the INFURG-SEMES group (MPB-INFURG-SEMES). The model achieved an area under the curve-receiver operating curve of 0.924 (CI 95%:0.914-0.934) in the derivation cohort, and 0.926 (CI 95%: 0.910-0.942) in the validation cohort. Patients were then split into ten risk categories, and had the following rates of risk: 0.2%(0 points), 0.4%(1 point), 0.9%(2 points), 1.8%(3 points), 4.7%(4 points), 19.1% (5 points), 39.1% (6 points), 56.8% (7 points), 71.1% (8 points), 82.7% (9 points) and 90.1% (10 points). Findings were similar in the validation cohort. The cut-off point of five points provided the best precision with a sensitivity of 95.94%, specificity of 76.28%, positive predictive value of 53.63% and negative predictive value of 98.50%. CONCLUSION: The MPB-INFURG-SEMES model may be useful for the stratification of risk of bacteraemia in adult patients with infection in EDs, together with clinical judgement and other variables independent of the process and the patient.

Socio-Demographic Health Determinants Are Associated with Poor Prognosis in Spanish Patients Hospitalized with COVID-19.

INTRODUCTION: Social vulnerability is a known determinant of health in respiratory diseases. Our aim was to identify whether there are socio-demographic factors among COVID-19 patients hospitalized in Spain and their potential impact on health outcomes during the hospitalization. METHODS: A multicentric retrospective case series study based on administrative databases that included all COVID-19 cases admitted in 19 Spanish hospitals from 1 March to 15 April 2020. Socio-demographic data were collected. Outcomes were critical care admission and in-hospital mortality. RESULTS: We included 10,110 COVID-19 patients admitted to 18 Spanish hospitals (median age 68 (IQR 54-80) years old; 44.5% female; 14.8% were not born in Spain). Among these, 779 (7.7%) cases were admitted to critical care units and 1678 (16.6%) patients died during the hospitalization. Age, male gender, being immigrant, and low hospital saturation were independently associated with being admitted to an intensive care unit. Age, male gender, being immigrant, percentile of average per capita income, and hospital experience were independently associated with in-hospital mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Social determinants such as residence in low-income areas and being born in Latin American countries were associated with increased odds of being admitted to an intensive care unit and of in-hospital mortality. There was considerable variation in outcomes between different Spanish centers.

Validation of a predictive model for bacteraemia (MPB5-Toledo) in the patients seen in emergency departments due to infections. / Validación del modelo predictivo de bacteriemia (5MPB-Toledo) en los pacientes atendidos en el servicio de urgencias por infección.

OBJECTIVE: To validate a simple risk score to predict bacteremia (MPB5-Toledo) in patients seen in the emergency departments (ED) due to infections. METHODS: Prospective and multicenter observational cohort study of the blood cultures (BC) ordered in 74 Spanish ED for adults (aged 18 or older) seen from from October 1, 2019, to February 29, 2020. The predictive ability of the model was analyzed with the area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve (AUC-ROC). The prognostic performance for true bacteremia was calculated with the cut-off values chosen for getting the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value. RESULTS: A total of 3.843 blood samples wered cultured. True cases of bacteremia were confirmed in 839 (21.83%). The remaining 3.004 cultures (78.17%) were negative. Among the negative, 172 (4.47%) were judged to be contaminated. Low risk for bacteremia was indicated by a score of 0 to 2 points, intermediate risk by 3 to 5 points, and high risk by 6 to 8 points. Bacteremia in these 3 risk groups was predicted for 1.5%, 16.8%, and 81.6%, respectively. The model's area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.930 (95% CI, 0.916-0.948). The prognostic performance with a model's cut-off value of ≥ 5 points achieved 94.76% (95% CI: 92.97-96.12) sensitivity, 81.56% (95% CI: 80.11-82.92) specificity, and negative predictive value of 98.24% (95% CI: 97.62-98.70). CONCLUSION: The 5MPB-Toledo score is useful for predicting bacteremia in patients attended in hospital emergency departments for infection.

A multidrug-resistant microorganism infection risk prediction model: development and validation in an emergency medicine population.

The aim was to develop a predictive model of infection by multidrug-resistant microorganisms (MDRO). A national, retrospective cohort study was carried out including all patients attended for an infectious disease in 54 Spanish Emergency Departments (ED), in whom a microbiological isolation was available from a culture obtained during their attention in the ED. A MDRO infection prediction model was created in a derivation cohort using backward logistic regression. Those variables significant at p < 0.05 assigned an integer score proportional to the regression coefficient. The model was then internally validated by k-fold cross-validation and in the validation cohort. A total of 5460 patients were included; 1345 (24.6%) were considered to have a MDRO infection. Twelve independent risk factors were identified in the derivation cohort and were combined into an overall score, the ATM (assessment of threat for MDRO) score. The model achieved an area under the curve-receiver operating curve of 0.76 (CI 95% 0.74-0.78) in the derivation cohort and 0.72 (CI 95% 0.70-0.75) in the validation cohort (p = 0.0584). Patients were then split into 6 risk categories and had the following rates of risk: 7% (0-2 points), 16% (3-5 points), 24% (6-9 points), 33% (10-14 points), 47% (15-21 points), and 71% (> 21 points). Findings were similar in the validation cohort. Several patient-specific factors were independently associated with MDRO infection risk. When integrated into a clinical prediction rule, higher risk scores and risk classes were related to an increased risk for MDRO infection. This clinical prediction rule could be used by providers to identify patients at high risk and help to guide antibiotic strategy decisions, while accounting for clinical judgment.

Comparación de distintas estrategias para la predicción de muerte a corto plazo en el paciente anciano infectado / Comparison of different strategies for short-term death prediction in the infected older patient

Objetivo: Evaluar la capacidad del lactato o el índice de Charlson para mejorar la capacidad del SIRS y el qSOFA para identificar el riesgo de muerte a corto plazo de los pacientes ancianos, sin deterioro funcional grave, atendidos por sospecha de infección en urgencias. Metodología: Estudio de cohorte observacional prospectivo que incluyó a todos los pacientes de 75 años o más, sin deterioro funcional, atendidos por una infección aguda en 69 servicios de urgencias españoles durante 2 días en cada periodo estacional. Se recogieron datos demográficos, clínicos y analíticos. La variable de resultado principal fue la mortalidad por cualquier causa a los 30 días de la visita índice. Resultados: Se incluyeron 739 pacientes con una edad media de 84,9 (DE 6,0) años y 375 (50,7%) fueron mujeres. Noventa y un (12,3%) pacientes fallecieron dentro de los 30 días posteriores a la visita a urgencias. El ABC para el SIRS ≥ 2 y el qSOFA ≥ 2 fue de 0,637 (IC 95% 0,587-0,688; p<0,001) y 0,698 (IC 95% 0,635-0,761; p<0,001), respectivamente. La comparación entre esta curvas muestra una mejor capacidad de clasificación por parte del qSOFA ≥ 2 (p=0,041). Ambas escalas incrementan su capacidad de clasificación al añadir el lactato, siendo el ABC para SIRS más lactato de 0,705 (IC95% 0,652-0,758; p<0,001) y para qSOFA más lactato de 0,755 (IC95% 0,696-0,814; p<0,001), existiendo una tendencia estadística a un mejor rendimiento pronóstico de la segunda estrategia (p=0,0727). No ocurre lo mismo con el índice de Charlson, que no tiene efectos de mejora en la clasificación realizada con el SIRS (p=0,2269) ni con qSOFA (p=0,2573). Conclusiones: La inclusión de la valoración del lactato a las escalas SIRS y qSOFA mejoran su capacidad para identificar pacientes ancianos atendidos por infección en riesgo de muerte a corto plazo. La valoración del índice de Charlson no tiene efecto

Objective: The aim of this study was to determine the utility of a post hoc lactate added to SIRS and qSOFA score to predict 30-day mortality in older non-severely dependent patients attended for infection in the Emergency Department (ED). Methods: We performed an analytical, observational, prospective cohort study including patients of 75 years of age or older, without severe functional dependence, attended for an infectious disease in 69 Spanish ED for 2-day three seasonal periods. Demographic, clinical and analytical data were collected. The primary outcome was 30-day mortality after the index event. Results: We included 739 patients with a mean age of 84.9 (SD 6.0) years; 375 (50.7%) were women. Ninety-one (12.3%) died within 30 days. The AUC was 0.637 (IC 95% 0.587-0.688; p<0.001) for SIRS ≥ 2 and 0.698 (IC 95% 0.635-0.761; p<0,001) for qSOFA ≥ 2. Comparing receiver operating characteristic (ROC) there was a better accuracy of qSOFA vs SIRS (p=0.041). Both scales improve the prognosis accuracy with lactate inclusion. The AUC was 0.705 (IC95% 0.652-0.758; p<0.001) for SIRS plus lactate and 0.755 (IC95% 0.696-0.814; p<0.001) for qSOFA plus lactate, showing a trend to statistical significance for the second strategy (p=0.0727). Charlson index not added prognosis accuracy to SIRS (p=0.2269) or qSOFA (p=0.2573). Conclusions: Lactate added to SIRS and qSOFA score improve the accuracy of SIRS and qSOFA to predict short-term mortality in older non-severely dependent patients attended for infection. There is not effect in adding Charlson index